For the climate periods centered on 2030 and 2050 three climate episodes have been selected using an ensemble of 26 regional climate models. Of those, 13 were forced with RCP4.5 and 13 with RCP8.5. The climate episodes were defined as the average air temperature of 5 consecutive days. For the identification and selection of heat waves the median of the 13 models forced with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and the maximum of all models was evaluated.
The heat waves of 2015 and 2017 both exceeded the 99.9 percentile of the climate period 1988 – 2017.
